RICS and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey NI – October 2024

Activity and prices in Northern Ireland’s housing market are expected to continue rising through the end of 2024, following on from increases in both demand and supply in October, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey.

A net balance of 64% of NI surveyors expects prices to rise over the next three months. This has edged up from the 60% that was reported in September. And a net balance of 38% of survey respondents anticipate that sales will rise over the next three-month period too.

Looking at current pricing, a net balance of 77% of NI respondents reported that prices rose over the past three months. NI surveyors continue to report stronger pricing balances than UK counterparts, with the UK average sitting at 16%.

Demand also rose through October. A net balance of 50% of surveyors in Northern Ireland reported an increase in new buyer enquiries, up from 38% in September.

NI respondents also report an increase in supply, as a net balance of 34% noted a rise in new instructions to sell.

As demand and supply rise, surveyors in NI report an increase in newly agreed sales. Through the month of October, a net balance of 49% of respondents reported a rise in sales.

Samuel Dickey, RICS Northern Ireland Residential Property Spokesman, comments: “The latest survey points to the local housing market outperforming other areas of the UK in terms of pricing, new buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales. With the recent Bank of England cut in interest rates, we should see lower mortgage rates for borrowers. The biggest challenge to increased sales though continues to be the lack of supply. The most recent survey indicates that supply is improving marginally, however it is still not enough to meet the demands of the market, and anecdotally we’re seeing competitive bidding on appropriately priced homes.”

Terry Robb, Head of Personal Banking at Ulster Bank, says: “The latest survey points to a good period of activity for the housing market locally, with a pick-up in agreed sales. The Northern Ireland housing market also continues to outperform a number of other UK regions, with new buyer enquiries still at a healthy level.

“This reporting aligns with our own experience of mortgage demand, with good buyer interest evident across the spectrum. Whilst the major challenge that many potential borrowers continue to experience is a shortage of quality homes to choose from, the report does point to a pick-up in the number of properties coming onto the market, which is positive.”

Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Head of Market Analysis, Tarrant Parsons, said: “The UK housing market saw a continued pick-up in activity through October, with the recent improvement in buyer demand translating into growth in the number of sales being agreed. Just as importantly, forward-looking sentiment points to this brighter trend remaining in place over the coming months. That said, the rise in bond yields following the Budget, alongside a general increase in financial market implied interest rate expectations over the past couple of weeks, will likely present something of a headwind for the market to contend with over the short term.”