RICS and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey NI – November 2024

Northern Ireland’s housing market is ending the year on an upward trend, the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey suggests, despite ongoing concerns around insufficient supply to meet demand.

On the pricing front, a net balance of 66% of respondents in NI reported that prices rose through November, which is higher than the UK average of 25%. And respondents expect this to continue, with a net balance of 64% expecting house prices to rise over the next three months.

Demand for houses also continued to rise through November, although at a slower rate than seen previously. A net balance of 42% of NI respondents reported a rise in new buyer enquiries, down from 50% in the previous survey but still higher than the UK average of 12%.

With regard to sales, a net balance of 24% of respondents in NI reported that sales rose through November, which is down from 46% in October, but above the UK average of 1%. NI surveyors also remain optimistic on the sales outlook, with a net balance of 64% of respondents anticipating sales to rise over the next three months.

On the supply side, whilst there has been evidence of more properties coming onto the market in recent months, this appears to have slowed in November with a net balance of 6% of respondents in NI reporting that new instructions to sell rose through the month, down from 32% in October. Anecdotally, respondents continue to say that there is insufficient supply to meet demand.

Samuel Dickey, RICS Northern Ireland Residential Property Spokesman, comments:
“The housing market looks set to end the year with prices and sales activity rising, and surveyors remain relatively upbeat about the new year. But the market is continuing to face challenges in the form of a lack of supply. A key reason behind this is the longstanding issue of a lack of wastewater infrastructure as well as planning delays. This is limiting the number of new builds coming to the market. It is encouraging though to see that despite this, NI respondents remain more optimistic than their UK counterparts.”

Terry Robb, Head of Personal Banking at Ulster Bank, says:
“With changes to stamp duty thresholds for first-time and other buyers coming into effect in 2025 as well as proposed increases to residential rates, buyers are planning their purchases more carefully than ever. That said, in line with what is being reported in the latest survey, we are yet to see interest dwindling or mortgage enquiries slowing down. As the market ends the year on a positive note, we hope to see this continue into 2025.”

Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Senior Economist, Tarrant Parsons, said:
“Although the latest survey results continue to signal a steady improvement in buyer demand across the residential market, the broader macro environment is likely to pose additional headwinds moving forward. Most significantly, the recent rise in mortgage interest rates may curtail the recovery in market activity before long, and this is reflected in the slightly less optimistic sales expectations data coming through this month.

“Moreover, measures of consumer and business confidence across the economy have deteriorated of late and, if sustained, this could begin to feed through into housing market conditions in the months ahead.”