RICS Commercial Property Monitor for Northern Ireland – Q4 2025

• Occupier demand at all sector level stable in Q4
• Respondents expect rents to rise over next three months, but marginally so
• 12-month outlook for retail rents turns positive for the first time since 2017
• Capital values expected to hold steady this quarter, but sentiment improves on the 12-month horizon

The NI commercial property market remains subdued, but signs of stabilisation are emerging as sentiment improves and capital values are expected to rise according to the latest RICS Commercial Property Monitor for Q4 2025.

Overall occupier demand was flat across NI’s commercial property sector at the end of 2025, with the industrial sector continuing to outperform retail and office space. A net balance of 13% of NI respondents noted an increase in demand for industrial space, whilst a net balance of -13% of surveyors reported a fall in demand for retail space (though this is much less negative than the average since Covid). Demand for office space was noted to have been flat. 

Looking at rents, at all sector level, NI respondents expect rents to rise through the first three months of 2026, albeit marginally so, with a net balance of 4% expecting an increase. NI surveyors expect rents for office and retail space to be flat through Q1 2026. Looking at industrial space, a net balance of 13% of surveyors expect rents to rise.

On the 12-month horizon, though, rents for retail space are expected to rise according to a net balance of 19% of respondents – the first time this balance has been in positive territory since 2017. Rents for industrial space are also expected to rise (also a net balance of 19% of respondents), whilst rents for office space are expected to fall (a net balance of -31%).

Surveyors in NI expect capital values to be broadly flat through the first quarter of 2026 at all sector level. Looking at the subsectors, the industrial sector continues to outperform the others on this front, as a net balance of 13% of respondents anticipate industrial sector capital values will rise over the next three months. A net balance of -13% expects capital values to fall in office space, whilst capital values for retail space are expected to be flat through Q1 2026 (the first time this balance hasn’t been negative since the end of 2017).

Over the next 12-months NI respondents expect capital values to rise at an all sector level, but only marginally so. Capital values for retail space are expected to rise for the first time since 2018 (a net balance of 6% of NI surveyors anticipating a rise), with capital values for industrial space also expected to rise (a net balance of 38%). However, a net balance of -31% of NI respondents anticipate capital values for office space to decline.

Garrett O’Hare, RICS NI commercial property spokesperson says:

“Northern Ireland’s commercial property market delivered a clear improvement in activity through 2025, with investment volumes materially higher than the previous year and strong participation from local investors, particularly in retail and industrial assets. While occupier demand and sentiment softened towards the end of the year, pricing has stabilised and investment enquiries are showing early signs of improvement. Looking ahead, 2026 should see continued momentum for well-located, income-secure assets, with greater confidence returning as market conditions normalise. Notably, the data suggests that the retail sector might be finding its footing after a prolonged period of adjustment.”

Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Head of Market Research & Analysis, Tarrant Parsons, said:

“The Q4 results suggest the UK commercial property market is beginning to find its footing after a prolonged period of adjustment. While near-term conditions remain relatively soft, there are tentative signs that sentiment may be stabilising, with a modest uptick in the proportion of respondents detecting early recovery signals. Most notably, expectations for rental and capital value growth have been upgraded across prime markets, suggesting respondents are becoming more confident in the medium-term outlook. Overall, the market seems to be shifting towards more cautious optimism, though elevated financing costs continue to temper the pace of any potential recovery.”